We’ve been here before and each time the answer is no. There’s too much in favour of print to bury it prematurely.
However, we know that particular types of print are under severe threat. The continuing decline of newsprint in particular is well documented.
But what of legal publications? Law journals, particularly the scholarly, look set for an early grave. According to a recent report on Law Review Circulation by Ross E. Davies of George Mason University School of Law, per Inside Higher Ed, the circulation of Harvard Law Review, for example, has declined from 8,760 in 1980 through 4,367 in 1998 to 2,610 in 2008. That’s a whopping 70% decline over the longer period and 40% in the last 10 years.
As if natural attrition wasn’t enough, Law Librarian Blog reports on the 11 February Durham Statement on Open Access to Legal Scholarship signed by a dozen leading US law profs who are actively calling for the end:
The undersigned believe that it will benefit legal education and improve the dissemination of legal scholarly information if law schools commit to making the legal scholarship they publish available in stable, open, digital formats in place of print. … If stable, open, digital formats are available, law schools should stop publishing law journals in print and law libraries should stop acquiring print law journals. We believe that, in addition to their other benefits, these changes are particularly timely in light of the financial challenges currently facing many law schools.
The current economic downturn will also spell the end for many other print publications that have been struggling to show a profit. In a recent poll the Law Librarian Blog found that 89% of respondent law librarians (42% law firm, 40% academic, 14% public) had already experienced or were expecting budget cuts averaging 10%. 82% of the cuts were expected to be applied to their collections budgets – implying an average collections cut of 7% or so. Given how the economy is tanking, that 7% cut looks highly optimistic to me.
And where are those cutbacks going to bite most? Where online equivalents are already paid for out of the budget or where free access materials might substitute, print will suffer severely. For me that says an acceleration in the decline of printed law reports, looseleaf encyclopedias and periodicals.
What will be left? Why the practice book, shorn of all appendices. That’s where the enduring value is.